China and N. Korea

Alright, this is something that came up some time last week. I've been busy, but this is actually very big news.

All this stuff we keep hearing about North Korea and China is scary. They share a common thread with Communism. Does that mean that no matter what, China will still back North Korea? That has always been the fear.

Vice Premier Hui Liangyu visited Pyongyang to celebrate a 45-year-old friendship pact with North Korea, and to coax the isolated totalitarian state back to disarmament talks after its July 5 barrage of missile tests alarmed Western capitals.

But China's failure to sway North Korea and its weekend vote for the U.N. resolution condemning the missile tests exposed frustrations behind China's public vows of friendship, and raised the price Chinese President Hu Jintao may pay as he seeks to somehow both comfort and cajole Pyongyang.

In January, North Korea leader Kim Jong-Il made a nine-day visit to China. Hu hosted Kim several times, proudly showing him oversized vegetables at an agriculture institute.

Speaking of cucumbers...

China believes an endangered and resentful fortress state on its doorstep could threaten its security, and waves of refugees from a North Korean collapse could destabilize its northeast.

While few Beijing analysts doubt China must engage its struggling Stalinist neighbor, some are now wondering whether Hu's embrace of Kim may have emboldened Pyongyang.

"It's been very easy to create misunderstandings, because it created the impression that China cannot abandon them," said Shi Yinhong, an international security expert at the People's University of China in Beijing.

"It's been very easy to create misunderstandings, because it created the impression that China cannot abandon them," said Shi Yinhong, an international security expert at the People's University of China in Beijing.



Some officials in Washington had hoped the crisis would drive Beijing to coerce Pyongyang, but Chinese analysts say it has in fact illustrated the diminished leverage China has since bowing to Washington over its financial sanctions on North Korea.

Pyongyang is bitter at Beijing's acceptance of U.S. sanctions on a bank in Macau -- the gambling enclave that is Chinese territory -- after the bank was accused of acting as a conduit for North Korea's criminal earnings, said Shi.

"That's cut Chinese leverage over North Korea," Shi said.

Um, so China getting less crazy, North Korea getting more crazy? D'oh..

The deepening impasse over North Korea may ripple across China's broader international standing.



China's has used its hosting of six-party talks aimed at ending North Korea's nuclear ambitions to burnish its image as a "mature and responsible global actor", said Andrew Scobell, a specialist on China and North Korea at the U.S. Army War College.

South Korea, the United States, Japan and Russia also take part in those discussions, which have stalled since late last year over North Korean objections to the financial sanctions.

"If the six-party talks collapse that would be a major setback," said Scobell, who stressed he was offering his personal views. "The talks have given China a chance to project an image as a global statesman."

China will now be weighing what combination of promises and pressure may induce North Korea to desist from further missile launches and return to talks, said analysts.

South Korea has already announced a suspension of aid, making China's economic lifeline to North Korea all the more crucial.

Trade between North Korea and China reached US$1.58 billion in 2005, an increase of 14 percent on the previous year, according to South Korea's Trade-Investment Promotion Agency.

Beijing may consider a "temporary limited, unpublicized" squeeze on the flow of trade, aid and oil to pressure Pyongyang, said Shi.

But the Chinese Communist leadership's entrenched interest in North Korea's survival mean it will probably reach for rewards, not punishments, to lure Pyongyang back to talks, said analysts.

"North Korea never does anything without demanding something in return," said Scobell. "The Chinese are going to have to pony up something significant to get them back to the table."